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05/23/2006 02:21 PM ID: 54475 Permalink   

4 to 6 Major Hurricanes Predicted This Season

 

The National Hurricane Center is predicting four to six major hurricanes this season.These storms will be in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.

There will be up to 16 named storms, which is almost mild compared with the 27 named storms that appeared in 2005.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov 30, and this year's report shows that Atlantic waters are not as warm as they were at this time last year.

 
  Source: www.nbc4.com  
    WebReporter: rachel1085 Show Calling Card      
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ASSESS this news: BLOCK this news. Reason:
   
  17 Comments
  
  well  
 
we have to expect this. pollution, leading to global warming, melts glaciers, cause cooling of waters. its just really too bad , i never thought id begin to see it in my day and age.
 
  by: trankpill   05/23/2006 05:48 PM     
  @trankpill  
 
Expect what exactly? 4-6 major hurricanes and 16 named storms is well within the statistical norm for this region. Last year's 27 was high, but still within the norm for a high year.

Ok, wait, so if the tempature of the water goes up, you get to blame pollution, if it does down, you get to blame pollution... great. I'm gonna blame the space yetis is the tempature stays the same, since everything else is taken.
 
  by: tellgar     05/23/2006 06:11 PM     
  Global warming.. pfft  
 
Global warming has been occurring since the ice age ended and pollution did not cause that to happen. Although pollution does not help things, I highly doubt that the currently warming client is nothing more then a global cycle.

This is good news to me, that’s far less then last year, if they are accurate the southeast coastline may avoid another major hit.
 
  by: FuriouS76   05/23/2006 06:21 PM     
  i invented the internet  
 
dude there is no such thing as a space yeti...its a space sassquach...al gore said so ...so it is
 
  by: stew pit   05/23/2006 06:22 PM     
  ...  
 
the report leans toward the fact that cooler waters are causing the weather to be more mild, and thats what im referring to. pollution need not be the full reason, but what causes holes in the atmosphere, that makes global warming speed up? pollution. what else ya got?

oh and one more thing, smog doesnt cause holes but it blocks the sun, making it cooler too. much like a volcanic eruption. call your space yetis.
 
  by: trankpill   05/23/2006 07:04 PM     
  @tellgar @stew pit  
 
@tellgar
did you factor in the space yeti poo that could raise or lower the water temperature.

@stew pit
it has been determined by the EPA that Al Gore poo has no effect on the environment due to its lameness.
 
  by: valkyrie123     05/23/2006 08:25 PM     
  couple problems  
 
1. iceburgs melting doesn't really make the water cooler, it is does this is only a short term effect only noted due the volume, ice burg don't melt in cooler conditions but rather warmer conditions, its to be expected asa result the temperature of the water will increase.

secondly... smog, yes helps block out the sun, but it also does he opposite effect and trap the heat in by making the atmosphere thicker (example, this is why venus is hotter than mercury despite being further away; thinker atmosphere), not letting it escape freely, this is most notable in humidex readings... i live in an industrial city, and the smog from factories is just horrendous... can make it feel up to 10C higher than it actually is, this is most evident during heatwaves. ultimately the effect of smog isn't a cooling effect but rather the opposite, it makes it hotter and in the case of hundidex, makes it feel hotter due to moisture in the air... its interesting to note that where i live during heatwaves (esspecially when the smog advisory is in effect) its tends to compare about evenly with with countries sitting on or nearer to the equator, if anyone here live in ontario, esspecially southern ontario, i'm sure they know that i'm talking about.


i would think considering global warming the effect would be more storms in general, and also more violent on average... if you can recall the US almost got a typhoon last year... and calfornia had a few tornados.
 
  by: HAVOC666     05/23/2006 08:44 PM     
  corrected.  
 
i feel better about being corrected when it was done factually and politely, dont you? who else likes to be patronized? tellgar?
 
  by: trankpill   05/23/2006 09:22 PM     
  predicting?  
 
Isn't this blind prediction in a sense? Yeah its based on weather patterns and percepetation and what not but its still pretty wild to predict that many storms throughout a year....
 
  by: cyberfreak   05/24/2006 08:44 AM     
  @tellgar and FuriouS76  
 
are you seriously saying global warming doesn't exist? scientists have been warning us about it for decades. the only people denying its existence have been oil companies and the government officials they own.

and yes, global warming is responsible for the intensity of these hurricanes. recent studies show that the frequency of hurricanes has not been increased by global warming, but their intensity has. so fewer hurricanes doesn't give me any relief if we're to expect 4-6 katrina sized disasters. global warming is real, and i'd advice you to read up on what the effects of it really are.
 
  by: manilaryce     05/24/2006 09:28 AM     
  i didnt hear any big predictions about last year  
 
humm would anybody want to predict a lot and be wrong?
 
  by: zortona   05/24/2006 11:09 PM     
  How is that different  
 
From predicting a little and being wrong by a lot?
 
  by: kcking05     05/24/2006 11:17 PM     
  @trank  
 
"but what causes holes in the atmosphere, that makes global warming speed up? pollution."

If your right, then why is the hole in the ozone shrinking? As you so elegantly put it "what else ya got?"

"i feel better about being corrected when it was done factually"

You say that like what I said wasn't factually. Look up the history about how many hurricanes hit the US each year, for the last 100 years, what I said was fact... except the space yedi thing, that has yet to be proven either way.

@Havoc
"and calfornia had a few tornados."

Yeah, I've lived in california for 27 years now. It is an area of some frequency for tornados, albeit of weak intensity. We normally get atleast 1 a year.

"if you can recall the US almost got a typhoon last year"

As they have many, many times before that, there has even been times, where the US was hit by a typhoon. Statistically, last year wasn't anything out of the statistical norm. In the Western North Pacific Ocean, we see between 15 and 44 a year, since we started keeping track (1945). Last year didn't have a huge number of typoons, but 1965, 1967, and 1997 did... so are we blaming global warming on those years, and we've reduced it now?

@manil
"are you seriously saying global warming doesn't exist?"

Where did you get that from... seriously, do you read what people post or do you just put words into other people when you can't prove them wrong? I never even addressed global warming, and to quote furious "Global warming has been occurring since the ice age ended and pollution did not cause that to happen."

Noone, in any post said that global warming didn't exist.

On that note, Manil, I disagree with your assumption that dogs don't exist, and that our government is run by the space yedis and they have already invaded our fair world.
 
  by: tellgar     05/25/2006 12:35 AM     
  @tellgar  
 
"and to quote furious "Global warming has been occurring since the ice age ended and pollution did not cause that to happen."

this is mostly true... depends how you look at it does volcanic eruption count as pollution... its natural pollution but but would consider it pollution none the less... its unlikely human are the cause of global warming, however it been most notable during (and still) industialization. wildfire creates pollution but is naturally occuring, its still outputs pollution. basically it can be legitimently said that man has contributed to global warming since the discovery of fire... however polltuion is unavoidable... but the degree to which humans do it is very avoidable.

global warming i believe is a natural process, but on the same note i don't believe mankind should be speeding up this process... most people just seem not to care about global warming and how mankind ties into it... so long as it isn't threatening them right now... who cares about 50, 200, 1000 years down the road, in terms of the earth this is an extremely short peroid of time.
 
  by: HAVOC666     05/25/2006 01:58 AM     
  tellgar  
 
"Last year's 27 was high, but still within the norm for a high year."

I may be wrong, but I believe that last year's 28 named storms was highest ever on record for the Atlantic. The amount of violent storms was absolutely incredible. Katrina and Rita were absolute monsters before they struck land, both category 6's if they were to have such a category.
 
  by: banshee9898     05/25/2006 06:09 AM     
  @banshee  
 
Let's get this number right, I looked it up and it's 23 named hurricanes during last years storm season.

This is the most named storms in a single season, you are right on that, the old record was 21 named storms in 1933.

Maybe I phrased that part about the high norm incorrectly. Let me see if I can explain. During years where there were a high number of storms (some years are gonna have a lot of storms, some really low, some average), seeing a number in the high teens and very low 20s (17-21), isn't that uncommon statistically.

You also have to remember, that our records of hurricanes in the Alantic Ocean doesn't go back very far. When your talking about the weather of an object that has been around as long as the earth, 100 years of data, isn't much.

Also you have to remember, there was no satellites when the last record was set in 1933, and it is very possible that there may have been one or more storms that were missed during the 1933 and other seasons.
 
  by: tellgar     05/25/2006 09:38 AM     
  hmm.. odd  
 
I just noticed, that NBC say 27, but the official government report for 2005 says 23... maybe it depends on where you start counting?
 
  by: tellgar     05/25/2006 09:41 AM     
 
 
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