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01/29/2010 04:18 PM ID: 82682 Permalink   

U.S. Economy Grows Fastest Since 2003, But Slow-Down May Be on Horizon

 

The 5.7 percent annual growth rate registered by the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2009 was the fastest seen since 2003 and the most clear-cut evidence yet that the worst recession since the 1930s may have ended last year.

However, economists think that growth can´t be sustained, as it was mostly fueled by businesses spending on replenishing depleted inventories and on equipment and software. Consumers haven´t started spending at pre-recession levels yet.

The economy registered growth in its last two quarters after a history-making four consecutive quarters of decline between late 2008 and early 2009. Still, the expansion is expected to be too slow to reduce unemployment significantly this year.

 
  Source: hosted.ap.org  
    WebReporter: Ben_Reilly Show Calling Card      
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  12 Comments
  
  Just because Wall Street bankers are raking it in  
 
Doenst mean that the recession is over. I hate how economists like to measure the economy based off of the state of wealth being accumulated by the top 1%...

The last time I checked, the economy runs because of the working class and not the fat cats that exploit those workers!
 
  by: slavefortheman     01/29/2010 06:43 PM     
  NOT surprising...  
 
look at the history of GDP growth... after the oil crisis in the 70´s the US economy had a sharp rebound to 7.2% GDP growth (half of that rate of which occured the year after carter left, which would have been influence by him from the prior year, rather than reagan, and that was at 4.5% the years before it rose to 7.2%, though because it happened under reagan it got attributed to him).. but also fell dramatically.. and by 7 years later (1991) the US was back down to -0.2% GDP growth under bush sr.

if this is truely a worse recession the rebound should be less and over a lesser peroid of time... though with the increased tax revenue via moderate tax rate/bracket tweaking as opposed to tax cuts which decrease revenue this might not be the case and the rebound may not tapper off as fast.

i expect the obama admin to be to turn the economy around over 4-8 years as clinton did, and this increase is between what clinton and reagan had, at about this time in his presidency... if he does get the second term that is.. if not he´ll probably end up somewhat like jimmy carter, where whatever economic turn-around he causes wont be attributed to him because thebulk iof the properity will happen under the next admin (as it did for the first years of reagan, before tax cuts (along with spending increases; NOT CONSERVATIVE) tanked the economy between reagan and bush.

and FYI this is what they call a jobless recovery, the employment rate hasn´t gone down, much less gone down significantly to at least half that.

also another neat fact about jobless recovery tha last time the US economy saw such a jobless recovery was actually under reagan (started originally by the fiscal conservativeness [comparitively] of carter), the rebound was higher (to 7.2%), but so was the unemployment rate which was almost 11% (2% higher than ANY point under carter, and 3% higher than clinton, and 1% higher than obama currently has) at about this point; his second year).

so anytime people think obama (or democrats in general) is doing bad tell them to look at history... because chances are the people they support have done worse; esspecially fiscally... and done worse under more favorable conditions.
 
  by: HAVOC666     01/29/2010 07:56 PM     
  @HAVOC666  
 
Yes those figured are well and good but an economy cannot just come back on its own when a huge amount of that economy is housed in phantom investments like derivatives and such. That is what caused this. We were not implementing bubble economics in the 70s and the interest rates were much higher than current ones. These low rates are actually part of the problem and still have yet to be reversed.

There are many other factors that are causing this current situation but in general this current recession was an engineered one. Whether it was purposeful or merely got out of hand I can only speculate. But what I can assure you is that things will continue to get worse as long as we continue the current policy regiment.

At least back in the 70´s we had a strong industrial base and we exported much more than we do now. Just another factor to consider when measuring todays economy.

Unless some massive radical changes are put in place, IE: a re-enactment of Glass-Steagall among other things, we are going to be stuck in this rut for quite a long time to come. In fact it may get much worse.

The Obama admin is too scared and the congress is too inept to make such drastic change. I fear, we are in this for the long haul.
 
  by: slavefortheman     01/29/2010 09:38 PM     
  Reading to much into this  
 
This is just as explained,companies are refilling depleted stockpiles, and it is inevitable the trend will die off shortly. Simple reason being there are no jobs being created and people are spending. This is not any indication in my view the worst of this is over. Hopefully I am wrong, but this appears to be just more of the smoke and mirrors we have been looking at since he took office.
 
  by: hellblazer     01/29/2010 10:05 PM     
  That would be  
 
People are not spending..
 
  by: hellblazer     01/29/2010 10:05 PM     
  @hellblazer  
 
I don´t think there are any smoke and mirrors involved ... do you care to explain what you mean?
 
  by: Ben_Reilly     01/29/2010 10:54 PM     
  Inevitable  
 
When you hit rock bottom, the only direction to go is up.

The economy will make a rebound (however shortlived and minimal it may be), but for the economy to make a full recovery Obama will need to cut taxes and keep the fat fingers of government out of the private sector.
 
  by: CArnold     01/29/2010 11:23 PM     
   
 
Grows? Where? Sure the hell not here. The recession has NOT ended, in fact I don´t think we have seen the worse yet.

Yes I know that those hit first will see change last, but I recall certain members on here telling me I was full of it when I spoke about the jobless rate being high and that it was going to be happening in other states, same with the foreclosure issue. That probably explains why I don´t have any respect for someone that lives so far into thier party that they can´t see anything other than what that party feeds them. Ben, it isn´t you so no worries.
 
  by: TaraB     01/29/2010 11:24 PM     
  @carnold  
 
"but for the economy to make a full recovery Obama will need to cut taxes and keep the fat fingers of government out of the private sector."

actually that was 2 out of 3 reasons WHY the recession happened in the first place, tax cuts without proporiate spending cuts, and lack of regulation...the third reason being war.

you "conservatives" never learn... and yes thats in quotes because you republicans AREN´T conservatives at all in the fiscal sense and it shows in which presidents you supported and and the economic damage they did.. the ONLY people the last 3 republican presidence have worked for is the rich... not THE PEOPLE... THE PEOPLE got stuck with the bill and social cuts from the tax cuts you so adamantly support... despite the fact that this ALWAYS tanks the economy eventually by depriving the government of revenue needeed to run the country.
 
  by: HAVOC666     01/29/2010 11:45 PM     
  Economy Predictions Fail  
 
Every single person on this Earth goes out everyday with a list of things they know they are going to get. When they get to their destination they usually by other random things. Economy prediction fails because you can´t know what people want. Everone´s mind changes. I avoid the Business section of the newspaper and throw it in the trash. It has become as bad as the political commentary which is also all opinions. I am an open minded person but this economy stuff is starting to be highly annoying.

My other comment was that a business should only get tax breaks for every employee it employs, every employees 401k the company helps with, every employees health insurance policy (I believe a company should only pay half for insurance) as well as tax breaks for any donations; monetary or products to any local cause.

Anyways. I´m an independent but I share the Democrat state of mind because every Republican I meet seems to be really pissed off and really angry about living their life. I don´t see how people walk around pissed off these days. I´m so down to earth and nothing bothers me. Life is too short to be miserable. And despite what the news says, there are jobs EVERYWHERE. Get off your lazy asses, take a pay cut and go get a damn job. It´s better than making no money, sitting at home drinking and pissed off at the World. No one care about people who don´t go out of the way to help themselves. I stopped helping people that can help themselves. Rant rant. Grumble grumble :-P
 
  by: Quintessence   01/30/2010 05:11 AM     
  Oregon  
 
Seeing the worst of the recession. & nothing has changed here. Since March of last year it was the worst, but since Nov. of last year its been getting worse again.

Scratch that, I just re-looked & Michigan is doing the worst by leaps n bounds. So is Nevada, California, & Florida.
 
  by: vhan     01/30/2010 08:10 PM     
  @Ben_Reilly  
 
Quote:I don´t think there are any smoke and mirrors involved ... do you care to explain what you mean?

If you can´t figure out what I mean by reading this article then looking around you, then you won´t get it no matter how many times I explain it.
 
  by: hellblazer     02/05/2010 05:28 AM     
 
 
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